What are the biggest overpayments in football history?
Football is an ever-changing landscape, with allegiances shifting and powers waxing and waning over very short periods. This is seen most obviously in the transfer market, as players are moving clubs more frequently than ever before, often with substantial transfer fees involved. Because the reward for success in football is so great (especially for the finances and stature of a club and its owners), many clubs will spend hundreds of millions to assemble a star-studded squad of players.
Although the transfer world record has not been broken since Neymar’s stunning move to Paris in 2017, there are many big money moves every transfer window. As a result, the team at Spin Genie UK has updated their last Overvalued Players report to reveal the biggest overpays in history and this season. On the flip side, we can also reveal the biggest bargain fees paid for top players in the game.
The Most Overvalued Players of All-Time
First, we’ve looked at the most overvalued transfers of all time based on the percentage of the market value paid above their market value at the time of transfer. This isn’t to say that these transfers were all flops, as some indeed weren’t, and others may yet prove to pay off. Instead, it shows that the club paid more than what was generally expected to be fair market value.
Rank | Player Name | Position | Season | Club Left | Club Joined | Transfer Fee | Market Value at the Time of Transfer | Difference | Percentage of Value Paid |
1 | Ousmane Dembele | Midfielder | 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Barcelona | £112,050,000 | £27,390,000 | £84,660,000 | 409% |
2 | Virgil van Dijk | Defender | 2017/18 | Southampton | Liverpool | £70,259,500 | £24,900,000 | £45,359,500 | 282% |
3 | Antony | Midfielder | 2022/23 | Ajax | Manchester United | £78,850,000 | £29,050,000 | £49,800,000 | 271% |
4 | Alexander Isak | Forward | 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Newcastle United | £58,100,000 | £24,900,000 | £33,200,000 | 233% |
4 | Marc Cucurella | Defender | 2022/23 | Brighton and Hove Albion | Chelsea | £54,199,000 | £23,240,000 | £30,959,000 | 233% |
6 | Neymar | Forward | 2017/18 | Barcelona | Paris Saint Germain | £184,260,000 | £83,000,000 | £101,260,000 | 222% |
7 | Enzo Fernandez | Midfielder | 2022/23 | Benfica | Chelsea | £100,430,000 | £45,650,000 | £54,780,000 | 220% |
8 | Jeremy Doku | Midfielder | 2023/24 | Rennes | Manchester City | £49,800,000 | £23,240,000 | £26,560,000 | 214% |
9 | Benjamin White | Defender | 2021/22 | Brighton and Hove Albion | Arsenal | £48,555,000 | £23,240,000 | £25,315,000 | 209% |
10 | Ruben Dias | Defender | 2020/21 | Benfica | Manchester City | £59,428,000 | £29,050,000 | £30,378,000 | 205% |
1. Ousmane Dembele, Borussia Dortmund to Barcelona (2017/18)
Transfer fee - £112 millionMarket value at the time - £27 million
Percentage of value paid - 409%
Barcelona paid a remarkable premium of 409% of winger Ousmane Dembélé’s market value to secure him from Borussia Dortmund in the 2017/18 season. His explosive pace and skill set seemed ideal for Barcelona, especially following Neymar's departure. However, the significant investment also brought big expectations, which Dembélé struggled to live up to due to his recurring injuries, often affecting his consistency on the pitch.
2. Virgil van Dijk, Southampton to Liverpool (2017/18)
Transfer fee - £70 millionMarket value at the time - £25 million
Percentage of value paid - 282%
Liverpool’s decision to sign Virgil van Dijk for £70.26 million in 2018 transformed their defence. Although his transfer fee was 282% above his estimated market value, he quickly justified the expense by becoming pivotal to Liverpool’s Premier League and Champions League success. Van Dijk’s composure, leadership, and defensive skills have since seen him become one of the best centre-backs in the world.
3. Antony, Ajax to Manchester United (2022/23)
Transfer fee - £79 millionMarket value at the time - £29 million
Percentage of value paid - 271%
Manchester United paid a premium of 271% above Antony’s market value when they acquired him from Ajax for £78.85 million in the 2022/23 season. His high fee was due to his high potential at the time and United's need to strengthen their attack, but this also came with big expectations. While he’s known for his skill on the ball and versatility and is still a young player, he has failed to justify the investment fully.
The Most Undervalued Players of All-Time
On the other hand, these are the transfers that, in theory, proved to be the best value, with the clubs paying below market value at the time.
Rank | Player Name | Position | Season | Club Left | Club Joined | Transfer Fee | Market Value at the Time of Transfer | Difference | Percentage of Value Paid |
1 | Erling Haaland | Forward | 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Manchester City | £49,800,000 | £124,500,000 | -£74,700,000 | 40% |
2 | Raphaël Varane | Defender | 2021/22 | Real Madrid | Manchester United | £33,200,000 | £58,100,000 | -£24,900,000 | 57% |
3 | Leroy Sané | Midfielder | 2020/21 | Manchester City | Bayern Munich | £40,670,000 | £66,400,000 | -£25,730,000 | 61% |
4 | Alexis Mac Allister | Midfielder | 2023/24 | Brighton and Hove Albion | Liverpool | £34,860,000 | £53,950,000 | -£19,090,000 | 65% |
5 | Matthijs de Ligt | Defender | 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Manchester United | £37,350,000 | £53,950,000 | -£16,600,000 | 69% |
5 | Federico Chiesa | Forward | 2022/23 | Fiorentina | Juventus | £37,018,000 | £53,950,000 | -£16,932,000 | 69% |
7 | Cody Gakpo | Midfielder | 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Liverpool | £34,860,000 | £49,800,000 | -£14,940,000 | 70% |
8 | Dayot Upamecano | Defender | 2021/22 | RB Leipzig | Bayern Munich | £35,275,000 | £49,800,000 | -£14,525,000 | 71% |
9 | Radamel Falcao | Forward | 2013/14 | Atletico Madrid | Monaco | £35,690,000 | £49,800,000 | -£14,110,000 | 72% |
10 | Douglas Costa | Midfielder | 2018/19 | Bayern Munich | Juventus | £33,200,000 | £45,650,000 | -£12,450,000 | 73% |
1. Erling Haaland, Borussia Dortmund to Manchester City (2022/23)
Transfer fee - £49 millionMarket value at the time - £125 million
Percentage of value paid - 40%
Manchester City struck the best-value deal by signing Erling Haaland at 40% of his estimated market value of £124.5 million, thanks to a £49.8 million release clause. The prolific forward’s lethal finishing and physicality made him a perfect fit for City’s attack, and he quickly delivered, breaking records and becoming an integral part of their success. This transfer is a prime example of excellent transfer business, given Haaland’s enormous contributions compared to his cost.
2. Raphaël Varane, Real Madrid to Manchester United (2021/22)
Transfer fee - £33 millionMarket value at the time - £58 million
Percentage of value paid - 57%
When Manchester United secured Varane for £33.2 million, they obtained one of Europe’s top defenders at 57% of his market value. Varane, known for his defensive stability, leadership, and Champions League experience, brought experience to United’s backline. While his transfer was considered a bargain then, he had a mixed time during his spell at United. After his United contract expired, he signed for newly promoted Serie A team Como but picked up a knee injury just 20 minutes into his first game, eventually forcing him to retire.
3. Leroy Sané, Manchester City to Bayern Munich (2020/21)
Transfer fee - £41 millionMarket value at the time - £66 million
Percentage of value paid - 61%
Bayern Munich signed Leroy Sané at 61% of his market value, securing a £66.4 million-rated player for £40.67 million. Known for his agility, speed, and creativity on the wing, Sané bolstered Bayern’s attacking options and helped to replace club icons Franck Ribéry and Arjen Robben. A deal was close to being done a year earlier but was delayed by a long-term injury, which likely reduced the price tag slightly, too.
The Most Overvalued Players of 2024/25
Rank | Player Name | Position | Club Left | Club Joined | Transfer Fee | Market Value at the Time of Transfer | Difference | Percentage of Value Paid |
1 | Moteb Al-Harbi | Defender | Al-Shabab | Al-Hilal | £24,028,500 | £664,000 | £23,364,500 | 3619% |
2 | Omari Kellyman | Midfielder | Aston Villa | Chelsea | £18,675,000 | £830,000 | £17,845,000 | 2250% |
3 | Mike Penders | Goalkeeper | Genk | Chelsea | £16,600,000 | £830,000 | £15,770,000 | 2000% |
4 | Orri Oskarsson | Forward | Copenhagen | Real Sociedad | £16,600,000 | £4,150,000 | £12,450,000 | 400% |
5 | Odysseas Vlachodimos | Goalkeeper | Nottingham Forest | Newcastle United | £19,588,000 | £5,810,000 | £13,778,000 | 337% |
6 | Omari Hutchinson | Midfielder | Chelsea | Ipswich Town | £19,505,000 | £5,810,000 | £13,695,000 | 336% |
7 | Wilson Odobert | Midfielder | Burnley | Tottenham Hotspur | £24,319,000 | £8,300,000 | £16,019,000 | 293% |
8 | Elliot Anderson | Midfielder | Newcastle United | Nottingham Forest | £34,196,000 | £12,450,000 | £21,746,000 | 275% |
9 | Georginio Rutter | Forward | Leeds United | Brighton and Hove Albion | £38,761,000 | £14,940,000 | £23,821,000 | 259% |
10 | Archie Gray | Midfielder | Leeds United | Tottenham Hotspur | £34,237,500 | £14,940,000 | £19,297,500 | 229% |
1. Moteb Al-Harbi, Al-Shabab to Al-Hilal
Transfer fee - £24 millionMarket value at the time - £664,000
Percentage of value paid - 3,619%
The most significant overpayment of this year’s summer transfer window is a name that might not be too familiar to football fans: Moteb Al-Harbi. Al-Harbi moved between two clubs in the Saudi Pro League, Al-Shabab and Al-Hilal, for £24.03 million despite a valuation of just £664,000. While he is a highly-rated player, this has been seen as a considerable overpayment and highlights the enormous financial power of Saudi clubs and their intent to move away from big-money overseas signings and to promote local talent.
2. Omari Kellyman, Aston Villa to Chelsea
Transfer fee - £18.7 millionMarket value at the time - £830,000
Percentage of value paid - 2,250%
Omari Kellyman is also seen as a promising player but had made just six appearances for Aston Villa before this transfer, making it surprising that he commanded a fee so much higher than his valuation. The transfer has been accused of being an example of ‘player laundering’, with the two clubs agreeing to inflated transfer fees to help get around the Premier League’s financial rules.
3. Mike Penders, Genk to Chelsea
Transfer fee - £16.6 millionMarket value at the time - £830,000
Percentage of value paid - 2,000%
Another Chelsea signing comes in third place, with the London club paying 2,000% of goalkeeper Mike Penders’ estimated value. Chelsea have been on a spending spree in the last couple of seasons, spending hefty transfer fees on many potential young talents like Penders, some of which are paying off better than others.
The Most Undervalued Players of 2024/25
Rank | Player Name | Position | Club Left | Club Joined | Transfer Fee | Market Value at the Time of Transfer | Difference | Percentage of Value Paid |
1 | Savinho | Midfielder | Troyes | Manchester City | £20,750,000 | £41,500,000 | -£20,750,000 | 50% |
2 | Khéphren Thuram | Midfielder | Nice | Juventus | £17,098,000 | £29,050,000 | -£11,952,000 | 59% |
3 | Mikel Merino | Midfielder | Real Sociedad | Arsenal | £26,560,000 | £41,500,000 | -£14,940,000 | 64% |
4 | Charles de Ketelaere | Midfielder | AC Milan | Atalanta | £18,260,000 | £28,220,000 | -£9,960,000 | 65% |
5 | Youssouf Fofana | Midfielder | Monaco | AC Milan | £16,600,000 | £24,900,000 | -£8,300,000 | 67% |
5 | Giorgi Mamardashvili | Goalkeeper | Valencia | Liverpool | £24,900,000 | £37,350,000 | -£12,450,000 | 67% |
7 | Bilal el Khannouss | Midfielder | Genk | Leicester City | £17,015,000 | £24,900,000 | -£7,885,000 | 68% |
8 | Matthijs de Ligt | Defender | Bayern Munich | Manchester United | £37,350,000 | £53,950,000 | -£16,600,000 | 69% |
9 | Elye Wahi | Forward | Lens | Marseille | £20,750,000 | £29,050,000 | -£8,300,000 | 71% |
10 | Thiago Almada | Midfielder | Atlanta United | Botafogo | £16,185,000 | £22,410,000 | -£6,225,000 | 72% |
1. Savinho, Troyes to Manchester City
Transfer fee - £20.8 million
Market value at the time - £41.5 million
Percentage of value paid - 50%
Manchester City made an excellent deal by acquiring Savinho for half of his market value, saving £20.75 million. Known for his creative flair and technical skills, Savinho is a young talent whose market value has been steadily rising. He initially hit the ground running in Manchester, winning the 2024 Community Shield in his first game, but has also had a couple of injury setbacks.
2. Khéphren Thuram, Nice to Juventus
Transfer fee - £17.1 million
Market value at the time - £29.1 million
Percentage of value paid - 59%
Juventus managed to secure Khéphren Thuram, a highly regarded midfielder, at 59% of his market value, saving £11.954 million. With a solid defensive presence and vision on the ball, Thuram brings valuable midfield depth to Juventus, the club his father, Lilian, also played for.
3. Mikel Merino, Real Sociedad to Arsenal
Transfer fee - £26.6 million
Market value at the time - £41.5 million
Percentage of value paid - 64%
Arsenal’s acquisition of Mikel Merino at just under two-thirds of his market value is another great deal. Known for his composure and passing range, Merino is a versatile midfielder with experience in La Liga, which Arsenal will now hope can take them to the Premier League title. After fracturing his shoulder in his first training session, he has since recovered and recently scored his first goal for the club.
Which Premier League Teams Overspent the Most this Summer?
Rank | Club | Permanent Transfers | Combined Transfer Fee | Combined Market Value at the Time of Transfers | Difference | Percentage of Value Paid |
1 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | £123,545,500 | £65,736,000 | £57,809,500 | 188% |
2 | Brentford | 5 | £81,257,000 | £51,211,000 | £30,046,000 | 159% |
3 | Everton | 4 | £40,006,000 | £25,979,000 | £14,027,000 | 154% |
4 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 9 | £191,896,000 | £126,990,000 | £64,906,000 | 151% |
5 | Ipswich Town | 10 | £103,741,700 | £69,305,000 | £34,436,700 | 150% |
6 | Newcastle United | 5 | £56,606,000 | £38,346,000 | £18,260,000 | 148% |
7 | Chelsea | 10 | £197,955,000 | £144,835,000 | £53,120,000 | 137% |
8 | Aston Villa | 7 | £141,349,000 | £117,030,000 | £24,319,000 | 121% |
9 | Leicester City | 7 | £72,044,000 | £60,009,000 | £12,035,000 | 120% |
10 | Nottingham Forest | 9 | £89,225,000 | £76,360,000 | £12,865,000 | 117% |
10 | Bournemouth | 7 | £86,627,100 | £74,243,500 | £12,383,600 | 117% |
12 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 6 | £57,187,000 | £50,049,000 | £7,138,000 | 114% |
13 | West Ham United | 7 | £119,852,000 | £109,477,000 | £10,375,000 | 109% |
14 | Southampton | 13 | £97,234,500 | £95,533,000 | £1,701,500 | 102% |
15 | Fulham | 5 | £75,986,500 | £77,190,000 | -£1,203,500 | 98% |
16 | Manchester United | 5 | £178,035,000 | £199,200,000 | -£21,165,000 | 89% |
17 | Arsenal | 3 | £90,387,000 | £107,900,000 | -£17,513,000 | 84% |
18 | Crystal Palace | 5 | £64,491,000 | £83,830,000 | -£19,339,000 | 77% |
19 | Liverpool | 2 | £34,860,000 | £66,400,000 | -£31,540,000 | 53% |
20 | Manchester City | 2 | £20,750,000 | £53,950,000 | -£33,200,000 | 38% |
1. Tottenham Hotspur
Combined transfer fees - £124 million
Combined market value - £66 million
Percentage of value paid - 188%
Tottenham’s notable overspending includes paying a 229% premium for Archie Gray from Leeds United, and Wilson Odobert who was signed from Burnle. Tottenham also brought in Dominic Solanke for 160% of his market value. Spurs are the eighth-highest-earning football club in the world and have seen an up-and-down return on their investment so far this season, but knocked Manchester City out of the 2024/25 EFL Cup.
2, Brentford
Combined transfer fees - £81 million
Combined market value - £51 million
Percentage of value paid - 159%
Brentford’s transfers show a 196% premium on Sepp van den Berg, Fábio Carvalho also came from Liverpool with an overspend of 167%. The most significant markup, however, was on Jayden Meghoma, a young defender from Southampton, acquired 843% of his transfer value. But Brentford are usually known for their shrewd spending and, so far, are flying in the Premier League under highly-rated manager Thomas Frank.
3. Everton
Combined transfer fees - £40 million
Combined market value - £26 million
Percentage of value paid - 154%
Everton ranks third, spending 154% of the market value to bring in new players. Everton have struggled in recent years, meaning they’ve needed to address several areas of the squad quickly, which could have led to overspending. The most significant overspend was on Tim Iroegbunam, at young midfielder from Aston Villa.
Methodology
- We used Transfermarkt's list of the most valuable transfers of all time to create a seed list of the top 250 most expensive transfers since 2004 (the year Transfermarkt first recorded players’ value).
- We recorded the transfer fee paid and the player's estimated market value at the transfer time. We then calculated what percentage of the player's value had been paid.
- The same process was repeated using the 100 biggest transfers of this season (2024/25).
- To find the PL clubs that had spent the highest or lowest amount compared to the market value of their signings, we combined the transfer fees of all their permanent signings and the estimated market value at the time of all their permanent signings. We then calculated what percentage of the player's value had been paid.
- Transfer price data was converted from euros into pounds, exchange rate is correct as of 12/11/24.
